As interest rates rise, the value of fixed income securities falls. Another risk is the increased supply of coupon bonds with less demand at current prices.In Q1 2024, the modelbased conviction has improved, bringing us into positive territory, signaling a more optimistic outlook for bonds. Term premiums have been on the rise, but should investors be concerned? In the case of the US, public debt has risen annually since the 2008 GFC with interest expense remaining stable due to low interest rates. Our longerterm analysis shows that the return potential from global bonds, especially government bonds, remains depressed. Notably, volatility in the bond market is unusually higher relative to equities (Exhibit 1). Bond prices generally move in the opposite direction of interest rates. As interest rates rise, the value of fixed income securities falls.